Sharpening your collaborative edge

All animals that have a brain, including humans, rely on mental models (representations) that are useful within the specific context of the individual. As humans we are consciously aware of some of the concepts that are part of our mental model of the world, and we can use empirical techniques to scratch the surface of the large unconscious parts of our mental model.

When making decisions, it is important to remember that there is no such thing as a correct model, and we entirely rely on models that are useful or seem useful from the perspective of our individual view point, which has been shaped by our perceptions of the interactions with our surroundings. One of the most useful features of our brains is the subconscious ability to perceive concrete instances of animals, plants, and inanimate objects. This ability is so fundamental that we have an extremely hard time not to think in terms of instances, and we even think about abstract concepts as distinct things or sets (water, good, bad, love, cats, dogs, …). Beyond concepts, our mental model consist of the perceived connections between concepts (spacial and temporal perceptions, cause and effect perceptions, perceived meaning, perceived understanding, and other results of the computations performed by our brain).

The last two examples (perceived meaning and understanding) in combination with the unconscious parts of our mental model are the critical elements that shape human societies. Scientists that attempt to build useful models face the hard tasks of

  • making parts of their mental model explicit,
  • designing measurement tools and experiments to validate the usefulness of their models,
  • and of reaching a shared understanding amongst a group of peers in relation to the usefulness of a model.

In doing so, natural scientists and social scientists resort to mathematical techniques, in particular techniques that lead to models with predictive properties, which in turn can be validated by empirical observations in combination with statistical techniques. This approach is known as the scientific method, and it works exceptionally well in physics and chemistry, and to a very limited extent it also works in the life sciences, in the social sciences, and other domains that involve complex systems and wicked problems.

The scientific method has been instrumental in advancing human knowledge, but it has not led to any useful models for representing the conscious parts of our mental model. This should not surprise. Our mental model is simply a collection of perceptions, and to date all available tools for measuring perceptions are very crude, most being limited to measuring brain activity in response to specific external stimuli. Furthermore, each brain is the result of processing a unique sequence of inputs and derived perceptions, and our perceptions can easily lead us to beliefs that are out of touch with scientific evidence and the perceptions of others. In a world that increasingly consists of digital artefacts, and where humans spend much of their time using and producing digital artefacts, the lack of scientifically validated knowledge about how the human brain creates the perception of meaning and understanding is of potential concern.

The mathematics of shared understanding

However, in order to improve the way in which humans collaborate and make decisions, there is no need for an empirically validated model of the human brain. Instead, it is sufficient to develop a mathematical model that allows the representation of concepts, meaning, and understanding in a way that allows humans to share and compare parts of mental models. Ideally, the shared representations in question are designed by humans for humans, to ensure that digital artefacts make optimal use of the human senses (sight, hearing, taste, smell, touch, acceleration, temperature, kinesthetic sense, pain) and human cognitive abilities. Model theory and denotational semantics, the mathematical disciplines needed for representing the meaning of any kind of symbol system, have only recently begun to find their way into applied informatics. Most of the mathematics were developed many years ago, in the first half of the 20th century.

To date the use of model theory and denotational semantics is mainly limited to the design of compilers and other low-level tools for translating human-readable specifications into representations that are executable by computing hardware. However, with a bit of smart software tooling, the same mathematical foundation can be used for sharing symbol systems and associated meanings amongst humans, significantly improving the speed at which perceived meaning can be communicated, and the speed at which shared understanding can be created and validated.

For most scientists this represents an unfamiliar use of mathematics, as meaning and understanding is not measured by an apparatus, but is consciously decided by humans: The level of shared understanding between two individuals with respect to a specific model is quantified by the number of instances that conform to the model based on the agreement between both individuals. At a practical level the meaning of a concept can be defined as the usage context of the concept from the specific view point of an individual. An individual’s understanding of a concept can be defined as the set of use cases that the individual associates with the concept (consciously and subconsciously).

These definitions are extremely useful in practice. They explain why it is so hard to communicate meaning, they highlight the unavoidable influence of perception, and they encourage people to share use cases in the form of stories to increase the level of shared understanding. Most importantly, these definitions don’t leave room for correct or incorrect meanings, they only leave room for different degrees of shared understanding – and encourage a mindset of collaboration rather than competition for “The truth”. The following slides provide a road map for improving your collaborative edge.

Sharpening Your Collaborative Edge

After reaching a shared understanding with respect to a model, individuals may apply the shared model to create further instances that match new usage contexts, but the shared understanding is only updated once these new usage contexts have been shared and agreement has been reached on model conformance.

Emerging technologies for semantic modelling have the potential to reshape communication and collaboration to a significant degree, in particular in all those areas that rely on creating a shared understanding within a community or between communities.

Poll on current priorities of IT organisations in the financial sector

As part of research on the banking sector, I have set up a poll on LinkedIn on the following question:

Which of the following objectives is currently the most relevant for IT organisations in the financial sector?

  • Improving software and data quality
  • Outsourcing new application development
  • Outsourcing legacy software maintenance
  • Improving time to market of new products
  • Reducing IT costs

The poll is intended as a simple pulse-check on IT in banking, and I’ll make the results available on this blog.

Please contribute here on LinkedIn, in particular if  you work in banking or are engaged in IT projects for a financial institution. Additional observations and comments are welcome, for example insights relating to banks in a particular country or geography.

No one is in control, mistakes happen on this planet

No one is in control, mistakes happen on this planet

As humans we heavily rely on intuition and on our personal mental models for making many millions of subsconscious decisions and a much smaller number of conscious decisions on a daily basis. All these decisions involve interpretations of our prior experience and the sensory input we receive. It is only in hindsight that we can realise our mistakes. Learning from mistakes involves updating our mental models, and we need to get better at it, not only personally, but as a society:

Whilst we will continue to interact heavily with humans, we increasingly interact with the web – and all our interactions are subject to the well-known problems of communication. One of the more profound characteristics of ultra-large-scale systems is the way in which the impact of unintended or unforeseen behaviours propagates through the system.

The most familiar example is the one of software viruses, which have spawned an entire industry. Just as in biology, viruses will never completely go away. It is an ongoing fight of empirical knowledge against undesirable pathogens that is unlikely to ever end, because both opponents are evolving their knowledge after each new encounter based on the experience gained.

Similar to viruses, there are many other unintended or unforeseen behaviours that propagate through ultra-large-scale systems. Only on some occasions do these behaviours result in immediate outages or misbehaviours that are easily observable by humans.

Sometimes it can take hours, weeks, or months for  downstream effects to aggregate to the point where they cause some component to reach a point where an explicit error is generated and a human observer is alerted. In many cases it is not possible to trace down the root cause or causes, and the co-called fix consists in correcting the visible part of the downstream damage.

Take the recent tsunami and the destroyed nuclear reactors in Japan. How far is it humanly and economically possible to fix the root causes? Globally, many nuclear reactor designs have weaknesses. What trade-off between risk levels (also including a contingency for risks that no one is currently aware of) and the cost of electricity are we prepared to make?

Addressing local sources of events that lead to easily and immediately observable error conditions is a drop in the bucket of potential sources of serious errors. Yet this is the usual limit of scope of that organisations apply to quality assurance, disaster recovery etc.

The difference between the web and a living system is fading, and our understanding of the system is limited to say the least. A sensible approach to failures and system errors is increasingly comparable to the one used in medicine to fight diseases – the process of finding out what helps is empirical, and all new treatments are tested for unintended side-effects over an extended period of time. Still, all the tests only lead to statistical data and interpretations, no absolute guarantees. In the life sciences no honest scientist can claim to be in full control. In fact, no one is in full control, and it is clear that no one will ever be in full control.

In contrast to the life sciences,  traditional management practices strive to avoid any semblance of “not being in full control”. Organisations that are ready to admit that they operate within the context of an ultra-large-scale system have a choice between:

  • conceding they have lost control internally, because their internal systems are so complex, or
  • regaining a degree of internal understandability by simplifying internal structures and systems, enabled by shifting to the use of external web services – which also does not establish full control.

Conceding the unavoidable loss of control, or being prepared to pay extensively  for effective risk reduction measures (one or two orders of magnitude in cost) amounts to political suicide in most organisations. Maybe corporate managers would be well advised to attend medical school to learn about complexity and the limits of predictability.

The impossibility of communicating desired intent

Communication relies on interpretation of the message by the recipient

Communication of desired intent can never be fully achieved. It would require a mind-meld between two individuals or between an individual and a machine.

The meaning (the semantics) propagated in a codified message is determined by the interpretation of the recipient, and not by the desired intent of the sender.

In the example on the right, the tree envisaged in the mind of the sender is not exactly the same as the tree resulting from the interpretation of the decoded message by the recipient.

To understand the practical ramnifications of interpretation, consider the following realistic example of communication in natural language between an analyst, a journalist, and a newspaper reader:

Communication of desired intent and interpretation

1. intent

  • Reiterate that recurring system outages at the big four banks are to be expected for at least 10 years whilst legacy systems are incrementally replaced
  • Indicate that an unpredictable and disruptive change will likely affect the landscape in banking within the next 15 years
  • Explain that similarly, 15 years ago, no one was able to predict that a large percentage of the population would be using Gmail from Google for email
  • Suggest that overseas providers of banking software or financial services may be part of the change and may compete against local banks
  • Indicate that local banks would find it hard to offer robust systems unless they each doubled or tripled their IT upgrade investments

2. interpretation

  • Bank customers must brace themselves for up to 15 years of pain
  • The big four banks would take 10 years to upgrade their systems and another five to stabilise those platforms
  • Local banks would struggle to compete against newer and nimbler rivals, which could sweep into Australia and compete against them
  • Local banks would find it hard to offer robust systems unless they each doubled or tripled their IT upgrade investments

3. intent (extrapolated from the differences between 1. and 2.)

  • Use words and numbers that maximise the period during which banking system outages are to be expected
  • Emphasise the potential threats to local banks and ignore irrelevant context information

4. interpretation

  • The various mental models that are constructed in the minds of readers who are unaware of 1.

Adults and even young children (once they have developed a theory of mind) know that others may sometimes interpret their messages in a surprising way. It is somewhat less obvious to realise that all sensory input received by the human brain is subject to interpretation, and that our own perception of reality is limited to an interpretation.

Next, consider an example of communication between a software user, a software developer (coder), and a machine, which involves both natural language and one or more computer programming languages:

Communication of desired intent including interpretation by a machine

1. intent

  • Request a system that is more reliably that the existing one
  • Simplify a number of unnecessarily complex workflows by automation
  • Ensure that all of the existing functionality is also available in the new system

2. interpretation

  • Redevelop the system in newer and more familiar technologies that offer a number of technical advantages
  • Develop a new user interface with a simplified screen and interaction design
  • Continue to allow use of the old system and provide back-end integration between the two systems

3. intent

  • Copy code patterns from another project that used some of the same technologies to avoid surprises
  • Deliver working user interface functionality as early as possible to validate the design with users
  • In the first iterations of the project continue to use the existing back-end, with a view to redeveloping the back-end at a later stage

4a. interpretation (version deployed into test environment)

  • Occasional run-time errors caused by subtle differences in the versions of the technologies used in this project and the project from which the code patterns were copied
  • Missing input validation constraints, resulting in some operational data that is considered illegal when accessed via the old system
  • Occurences of previously unencountered back-end errors due to the processing of illegal data

4b. interpretation (version deployed into production environment)

  • Most run-time errors caused by subtle differences in the versions of the technologies have been resolved
  • Since no one fully understands all the validation constraints imposed by the old system (or since some constraints are now deemed obsolete),  the back-end system has been modified to accept all operational data received via the new user interface
  • The back-end system no longer causes run-time errors but produces results (price calculations etc.) that in some cases deviate from the results produced by the old version of the back-end system

In the example above it is likely that not only the intent in step 3. but also the intent in step 1. is codified in writing. The messages in step 1. are codified in natural language, and  the messages in step 3. are codified in programming languages. Written codification in no way reduces the risk of interpretations that deviate from the desired intent. In any non-trivial system the interpretation of a specific message may depend on the context, and the same message in a different context may result in a different interpretation.

Every software developer knows that it is humanly impossible to write several hundred lines of non-trivial program code without introducing unintended “errors” that will lead to a non-expected interpretation by the machine. Humans are even quite unreliable at simple data entry tasks. Hence the need for extensive input data validation checks in software that directly alert the user to data that is inconsistent with what the system interprets as legal input.

There is no justification whatsoever to believe that the risks of mismatches between desired intent and interpretation are any less in the communication between user and software developer than in the communication between software developer and machine. Yet, somewhat surprisingly, many software development initiatives are planned and executed as if there is only a very remote chance of communication errors between users and software developers (coders).

In a nutshell, the entire agile manifesto for software development boils down to the recognition that communication errors are an unavoidable part of life, and for the most part, they occur despite the best efforts and intentions from all sides. In other words, the agile manifesto is simply an appeal to stop the highly wasteful blame culture that saps time, energy and money from all parties involved.

The big problem with most interpretations of the agile manifesto is the assumption that it is productive for a software developer to directly translate the interpretation 2. of desired user user intent 1. into an intent 3. expressed in a general purpose linear text-based programming language. This assumption is counter-productive since such a translation bridges a very large gap between user-level concepts and programming-language-level concepts. The semantic identities of user-level concepts contained in 1. end up being fragmented and scattered across a large set of programming-language-level concepts, which gets in the way of creating a shared understanding between users and software developers.

In contrast, if the software developer employs a user-level graphical domain-specific modelling notation, there is a one-to-one correspondence between the concepts in 1. and the concepts in 3., which greatly facilitates a shared understanding – or avoidance of a significant mismatch between the desired intent of the user 1. and the interpretation by the software developer 2. . The domain-specific modelling notation provides the software developer with a codification 3. of 1. that can be discussed with users and that simultaneously is easily processable by a machine. In this context the software developer takes on the role of an analyst who formalises the domain-specific semantics that are hidden in the natural language used to express 1. .

Participate: Tweeting in the format URL relationship URL

Twitter has emerged as a very powerful medium for propagating ideas and thoughts. Possibly Twitter is the ideal data input tool for harnessing the collective insights of the humans and systems that are connected to the web – effectively a significant proportion of all humans and virtually every non-trivial system on the planet.

By simply adopting a convention of twittering important insights in the format <some URL> <some relationship> <some other URL>, users can incrementally, one step at a time, create a personal model of the web. These personal models can grow arbitrarily large, and Twitter is certainly not the appropriate tool for visualising, modularising and analysing such models. But arguably, Twitter is the most elegant and simplest possible front end for capturing atoms of knowledge.

Note that URLs used on Twitter typically point to a substantial piece of information, and not a simple word or sentence. Often a URL references an entire article, a web site, or a non-trivial web-based system. These articles, web sites or systems can be considered semantic identities in that specific users (or groups of users) associate them with specific semantics (or “meaning”). Hence tweets in the <some URL> <some relationship> <some other URL> format suggested above represent connections between two semantic identities. A set of such tweets amounts to the construction of a mathematical graph, where the URLs are the vertices, and the relationships are the edges.

If we add functions for transforming graphs into the mix, and considering that we are connecting representations of semantic identities, we end up in the mathematical discipline of model theory. Considering further that Twitter models are user specific, and that the semantics that users associate with a URL are not necessarily identical – but rather complementary, we can further exploit results from the mathematics of denotational semantics. For the average user there is no need to worry about the formal mathematics, and it is sufficient to understand that the <some URL> <some relationship> <some other URL> format (I will use #URLrelURL on Twitter when referencing this format) allows the articulation of insights that correspond to the atoms of knowledge that humans store in their brains.

With appropriate software technology it is extremely easy to translate sets of #URLrelURL tweets into a proper mathematical graph, and into a user specific semantic model. These models can then be analysed, modularised, visualised, compared, and transformed with the help of machine & human intelligence. Amongst other things, retweets can be taken as an indication of some degree of shared understanding in relation to a particular insight. Further qualification of the semantic significance of specific tweets can be calculated from the connections between Twitter users, and from analysis of the information/functionality offered by the two connected URLs.

The most interesting results are unlikely to be the individual mental models that are recorded via #URLrelURL tweets, but will rather be the overlay of all the mental models, leading to a complex graph with weighted edges, which can be analysed from various perspectives. This graph represents a much better organisation of semantic knowledge than the organisation of information delivered by systems like Google search.

Instead of processing semantic models, Google search must process entire web sites with arbitrary syntactic content, with no indication of which pairs of URLs constitute insights useful to humans. Google can only indirectly infer (and make assumptions about) the semantics that humans associate with URLs by applying statistics and proprietary algorithms to syntactic information.

In contrast, the raw aggregated #URLrelURL tweet model of the world captures collective human semantics, and any additional machine generated #URLrelURL insights can be marked as such. The latter insights will not necessarily be of less value, but it will be reassuring to know that they are firmly grounded in the collective semantic perspective of human web users.

Making this semantic perspective accessible to humans and to software via appropriate search, visualisation, and analysis tools will constitute a huge step forwards in terms of learning, effective collaboration, quality of decision making, and in terms of eliminating the boundary between biological and computer software intelligence.

Therefore, please join me in capturing valuable nuggets of insight in the format of
<some URL> <some relationship> <some other URL> tweets.

Example:

http://gmodel.org #gmodel can be used to #translate twitter models into #semantic #models http://bit.ly/em60Tw